Descending Triangle Forms
Given the size of the descending triangle, it looks like silver may consolidate for a while longer if the integrity of the triangle is retained. Typically, a breakout can be anticipated before three quarters of the pattern has been filled towards the apex. A decisive decline below $31.65 signals a potential breakdown from the descending triangle pattern. That would open the door for silver to head towards a 50% retracement level at $31.00 or the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $30.37. Upside resistance parameters include the top trendline of the pattern (purple) and the most recent lower swing high at $33.24.
Might a Different Pattern Evolve?
If a downside signal triggers, there are a couple additional scenarios to consider. Given the current structure of the pattern a decline below $31.65 could evolve the current pattern into a potential bullish falling wedge, or eventually a flag pattern where the falling consolidation phase forms a small parallel channel.
Bulls in Charge Before Consolidation Rest
On the upside, what is clearly present is the potential pole for either a bull flag or wedge formation, if either were to eventually form. A sharp $5.36 or 18.9% rally finished in only 11 weeks at the $33.68 high from April 23. Such aggressive buying could be seen again in the next rally following the current correction. But that will depend on the pattern that exists at that time. Regardless, such aggressive buying increases the chance that the recent $28.32 bottom may stay a bottom for a while and that buyers remain for silver and accumulation is occurring overall.
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Source: Silver (XAGUSD) Price Forecast: Potentially Bearish Descending Triangle Forms
