In the UK retail sector, supermarket chain Morrisons has reported a pick-up in sales.
Morrisons’ like-for-like sales, excluding fuel, rose 4.1% in the three months from 29 January to 28 April. Total sales (ex-fuel) jumped 3.7% to £3.8bn.
Jo Goff, chief financial officer, says:
“This has been another solid quarter of progress with sales and volume improvements right across the business.
Our debt has now reduced by over a third and we made further progress on our cost savings programme with £78m delivered in the quarter, taking the total since the start of this year to just over £450m, in line with our £700 million three year target.”
Last year, Morrisons made a loss of more than £1bn after a debt-fuelled private equity takeover in 2021.
Updated at 05.24 EDT
Nvidia’s shares now UP in pre-market
Back in the future’s market…. Nvidia’s shares price is now rallying!
It’s currently up 2.5% in pre-market trading, at $121, having initially been on track for a 2% fall.
Wall Street opens at 2.30pm UK time (or 9.30am in New York), so we’ll see if it can hang onto these gains…..
NVIDIA SHARES UP NOW UP 1.3% PREMARKET
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) June 25, 2024
Updated at 05.06 EDT
Nvidia’s stonking share price rise over the last couple of years was partly driven by fear of missing out, says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
This phenomenon can work in reverse too, Mould points out:
“Admittedly, a near-7% decline in Nvidia. [yesterday] might have sounded the alarm bells that we’re seeing a shift in the market. It’s important to remember that stocks don’t always travel in a straight line and there is a herd mentality with big-name companies on the market.
“When everyone was piling into Nvidia, it created a sense of FOMO – fear of missing out – so others followed suit and bid up the shares even further. The same works in reverse, where a bout of selling can be exacerbated by others following the crowd and panicking.
“Quite a few institutional investors have been suggesting in recent months that US markets were looking a bit toppy. When everything is racing ahead it is time to take a hard look at a portfolio and think about what could go wrong as well as what could go right. The higher the big tech stocks rise, the greater the potential fall if markets turn.
Updated at 04.51 EDT
Nvidia’s selloff over the last few days has not, yet, spooked the wider markets.
Derren Nathan, equity research analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, explains:
“Nvidia has had another stumble slipping further away from the position it held briefly as the world’s most valuable company. But contrary to recent noise, markets are about more than just one stock. After several days of declines, yesterday saw the chipmaker’s stock lose over 6%, shedding some $200bn from its market value. But to put things in context, the shares have still gained 190% on a 12-month view, so it’s no surprise some investors are locking in some profits, including CEO Jensen Huang who is reported to have sold around $95mn of stock in recent days.
But although NVIDIA has sneezed, the wider market hasn’t caught a cold with a mixture of less extreme movements in both directions for the rest of the magnificent 7 [tech giants Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla and Meta].
Meanwhile, in other sectors US stocks saw gains in energy, financials and utilities: a vote of confidence by investors in the health of the broader economy.
Updated at 04.34 EDT
Nvidia down again in pre-market trading
Nvidia’s shares are on track for further losses when Wall Street opens in five and a half hours time.
Pre-market trading has just opened, and they’re down 2.1% at $115.64, on track for a fourth day of losses, pulling Nvidia deeper into a correction.
That would leave its shares slightly above the short-term support level identified by traders (see earlier post).
Updated at 04.09 EDT
Airbus’s woes have hit UK aerospace manufacturers.
Rolls-Royce, which makes and maintains jet engines, are down 3.3% in London, while Melrose, which produces engine components, are down 3.7%.
Updated at 04.03 EDT
Airbus shares slide after profits warning
Elsewhere in the markets, European aerospace giant Airbus has tumbled 9% this morning after cutting its profit forecasts last night.
Investors are ditching Airbus after it warned of persistent supply chain disruptions and challenges in its space business last night.
Airbus now expects to make around 770 commercial jets this year, down from a previous target of 800, saying:
In commercial aircraft, Airbus is facing persistent specific supply chain issues mainly in engines, aerostructures and cabin equipment.
Airbus is also taking a €900m charge at its Space Systems, after discovering “further commercial and technical” challenges.
It adds:
These are mainly related to updated assumptions on schedules, workload, sourcing, risks and costs over the lifetime of certain telecommunications, navigation and observation programmes.
Updated at 03.55 EDT
European chip stocks are feeling a chill from Nvidia.
ASML Holding, the Netherlands firm which makes machines to produce semiconductors, are down 2.7% this morning.
Another Dutch chip equipment maker, BE semiconductor Industries, are down 2.5%.
They had both enjoyed strong gains in the last 12 months.
Updated at 03.48 EDT
The drop in chipmakers such as Nvidia may show that a ‘rotation’ has begun in the US stock markets, with money moving away from the mega cap technology stocks which have been a major driver of gains this year.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, says:
The stellar rise of tech and AI-related stocks in particular inevitably gets to the stage where investors pause for breath and recalculate valuation levels.
Over recent days the more traditional Dow Jones index has been the subject of buying interest at the expense of the more tech exposed S&P500 and Nasdaq indices, as investors seek alternatives such as financials and utilities, and more broadly in value stocks which have been left behind by the tech surge.
After two weaker trading sessions, market darling Nvidia fell a further 6.7% while other chip stocks such as Broadcom and Qualcomm fell between 3% and 6%.
While it is far too early to call an end to the current run, such minor corrections are generally seen as healthy, while the expected downward direction of travel for interest rates provides a comforting backdrop as companies more broadly are comfortable to borrow to grow their businesses.
Updated at 03.36 EDT
The drop in Nvidia’s share price in the last three sessions will be painful for investors who had bought call options in the chipmaker.
Call options give the right (but not the obligation) to buy a stock in future at a fixed price.
There had been booming interest in call options in Nvidia, which paid out if its stock kept rising – a profitable trade, until the last few trading sessions.
“Net call volumes in [mega-cap growth] & Tech surged this week to record highs, going above even pandemic boom levels, and completely disconnecting from those in the rest of the market” –DB pic.twitter.com/E45DXrNobL
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) June 21, 2024
The biggest profits were to be made in buying ‘out of the money’ Nvidia call options, which would only pay off it its stock climbed sharply higher.
Arguably those call options helped to drive up stocks too, as traders who had written the option could protect themselves by buying the underlying share, just in case they rose above the ‘strike price’ (when the option is then ‘in the money’)
Updated at 03.33 EDT
It’s important to remember that Nvidia is an extremely volatile stock.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, explains:
The chart below shows Nvidia 1-month call option volatility and the Vix (green line). The calm Vix index hides the fact that the second-best performer on the index is extremely volatile. As we have said before, Nvidia does experience periods of extreme volatility, both to the upside and to the downside. If you own this stock, you need to make peace with that.
But the other issue is that Nvidia’s stock was looking a little pricy.
Brooks writes:
Not even the stock split earlier this month has dampened down Nvidia’s stock price volatility. Analysts have upgraded their forecasts for their Q2 earnings in the last 4 weeks, however, with a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 42, higher than the average for the S&P 500 of 25.6, there is no denying that Nvidia is starting to look a bit rich.
While we don’t deny that Nvidia is delivering on the earnings front: it is expected to deliver $28bn of revenue in Q3, and operating profits of $18.5bn, investors must pay up for these earnings. Thus, there is less room for Nvidia to slip up when it delivers its earnings reports, which may worry some investors. Tech is a multiyear theme, especially Artificial Intelligence, thus we do not expect Nvidia’s stock price to fall off a cliff, but a pullback is to be expected. Added to this, it is normal for investors to pause and consider if a stock is looking overvalued, even a stock like Nvidia.
Updated at 03.03 EDT
Bloomberg: Nvidia’s 13% stock rout has traders scouring charts for support
After a three-day slide, financial traders are wondering how much further Nvidia’s shares may fall.
Bloomberg reports that traders are turning to technical analysis for clues on where the bottom may be.
Yesterday’s 6.7% drop took Nvidia’s share price down to $118, having briefly hit an alltime high of $140 last week.
Buff Dormeier, chief technical analyst at Kingsview Partners, sees short-term support around the $115 level, with the next significant level at $100.
These support levels are calculated by using Fibonacci retracement levels, using stock price data to work out where a stock might have support on the way down, or face resistance on the way up.
Next potential entry point for Nvidia is near. Potential support level around the $115.8 level (fibo retracement from April low to recent high) $NVDA
3/3 pic.twitter.com/ZMIQ3qT8S7
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) June 25, 2024
Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, points out that Nvidia’s longer-term trend remains strong – the stock is still trading well above its 50-day moving average around $101 and 100-day moving average at $92.
Updated at 02.58 EDT
Introduction: Over $500bn wiped off Nvidia after shares slide
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Nvidia, one of the hottest shares on the market this year, has dropped into a correction – leaving traders worrying that the air is coming out of the AI stock boom.
After three days of chunky falls, Nvidia’s stock has now dropped by 13% since – briefly – becoming the world’s largest company a week ago.
Yesterday it tumbled by 6.7% on Wall Street, taking its losses over the last few days to over $500bn(!).
That’s the biggest three-day value loss for any company in history, Bloomberg reports.
Nvidia’s falls pulled the wider market down too, as Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank explained this morning:
Nvidia has been driving markets again over the last 24 hours, as its share price came down another -6.68%, building on its -4.03% decline over the previous week and -16.1% from the intra-day high on Thursday.
In turn, that held down US equity returns more broadly, as the losses for Nvidia pushed the NASDAQ (-1.09%) and the S&P 500 (-0.31%) into negative territory for the day.
Nvidia’s share price falls follow a stellar run – the stock is still up almost 140% in 2024, and has almost tripled over the last 12 months.
The rally had been driven by excitement about artificial intelligence systems, which are powered by Nvidia’s high-end chips.
But some analysts had been concerned that the AI boom had run too high, and was turning into a bubble.
David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, says there are signs of profit taking by investors who bought shares in “Market darling Nvidia” on the way up:
Some profit-taking seems entirely reasonable given NVIDIA’s meteoric rise. The stock was up over 180% this year alone. But if it continues to lose ground, then there’s a danger of contagion, with selling spreading to other big tech names. If that were the case, then the market could be in for a deeper and more protracted pull-back.
Yet there are few indications that investors are even thinking along these lines.
Nvidia has been posting very impressive financial results this year. In the last quarter, revenues surged by 262% year-on-year, with earnings per share up a staggering 629%.
But the enthusiasm for Nvidia’s stock this year had pushed its valuation to levels that implied it would keep beating expectations with stellar revenue and earnings.
Another factor weighing on Nvidia is that CEO Jensen Huang has been selling stock this month, through a trading plan. That has focused attention on whether the stock was somewhat overvaued.
To all $NVDA hodlers: Jensen Huang after his most recent stock sale (about $90 million) still owns more than 800 million -shares-. That’s little over $95 -B-illion US Dollars.
— Alex M Harbison (@alexmharbison) June 24, 2024
Another point: we’ve approaching the end of the financial quarter – so some investors will be rebalancing portfolios and cashing in profits.
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at capital.com, explains:
It’s difficult to extrapolate what can be attributed to technical factors and what’s fundamentals in the markets, with price action apparently driven by end-of-month and end-of-quarter positioning.
A sell-down in tech, despite little shift in rates expectations and the outlook for earnings, may signal a trimming by investors of the quarter’s big winners. Nvidia epitomises the dynamic, down 12% in three days and little-to-news.
The agenda
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1.30pm BST: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May
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1.30pm BST: Canadian inflation report for May
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2pm BST: US house price index for April
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3pm BST: US consumer confidence report for June
Updated at 03.13 EDT
Source: Nvidia sell-off wipes more than $500bn off value of AI chip firm – business live |