The long-and-winding route that leads to Louisville on May 4 for the 150th Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve has only one stop left before the first jewel of the 2024 Triple Crown. Saturday’s $400,000 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland is the last qualifying points race for this year’s Kentucky Derby, offering 42 points total on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale to the top five finishers.
For most of the field, the 20 points to the winner would not be sufficient to earn a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby. However, #5 Hades would punch his ticket to Louisville with a win and a victory could elevate #8 Encino, #9 Liberal Arts, or #10 Lucky Jeremy to the fringe of the top 20 where a defection or two from the current list of possible Derby starters could result in a starting spot for the taking.
Given the gravity of the race for those four runners, I expect them to be fully cranked up for the Lexington. For that reason, I prefer both #8 Encino (5-1, morning line) and #5 Hades (7-2) to morning-line favorite #2 The Wine Steward (5-2), who is making his first start in six months since running second to Locked in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity.
The Wine Steward showed plenty of ability as a 2-year-old with three wins and one second in four starts. He also ran well on this main track at this 1 1/16-mile distance in a Grade 1 race, so I understand why he will have plenty of backers. But a lot can change in six months, and my guess is this race might be a steppingstone to a future start for The Wine Steward, whereas Encino and Hades both have raced steadily since December and need a win to qualify for the Derby.
I liked Encino as a longshot play against a tougher group last weekend in the $1 million, Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes before he was scratched by trainer Brad Cox in favor of the Lexington, so I think he can get the job done here against an easier group. The Nyquist colt will make his first start on dirt after posting two wins and one second in three races on the all-weather Tapeta Footings surface at Turfway Park, including a one-length victory in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes.
Nothing in Encino’s pedigree would seem to indicate he should not excel on dirt and he’s had three timed workouts on the main track at Keeneland, including a promising half-mile breeze April 6. This 1 1/16-mile setup at Keeneland features a short stretch run with the finish line at the sixteenth pole, so it’s important not to leave to much work to do late. Encino has enough tactical speed that he should be able to get a decent spot tucked in just behind probable pacesetters Hades and Lucky Jeremy.
Hades’ early speed and his two-length win in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes on the Derby trail in February make me confident he will bounce back from a disappointing fifth-place finish in the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa. He likes to be on or near the lead and was taken out of his game with a poor start in the Florida Derby. He should be able to get to first or second from a favorable post position and I expect him to run well.
My plan is to play against morning-line favorite The Wine Steward and third choice Liberal Arts and hammer the exacta with Encino and Hades. I’ll also play Encino to win at 5-1 or higher.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$5 exacta box: 5,8 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, 10th race, $5 exacta box 5,8
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 exacta box: 5,8 ($30)
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, 10th race, $15 exacta box 5,8
Source: Making Money Betting the Exacta in 2024 Lexington Stakes
