An excellent field was entered for Saturday’s $500,000, Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fleur de Lis Stakes at Churchill Downs. It might be a small field, with only six entrants, but those half-dozen fillies and mares comprise a highly accomplished group.
Case in point? Five of the entrants are proven graded stakes winners. They include #4 Scylla, a beautifully bred 4-year-old filly whose 4-for-6 lifetime record includes a perfect 3-for-3 tally at Churchill Downs.
A daughter of three-time leading North American sire Tapit out of champion Close Hatches, Scylla is a full-sister (same sire [father] and dam [mother]) to Tacitus, a three-time Grade 2 winner who placed in the 2019 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes.
It’s taken time for Scylla to find her best form, but she’s been on fire at Churchill Downs in recent weeks. On May 4, she smashed an $80,000 allowance-optional claimer by seven lengths going one mile. Then on June 1, she pressed a modest pace in the Grade 3 Shawnee Stakes before taking over to defeat #6 Xigera — winner of the Grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes and Grade 3 Falls City Stakes last year — by 3 1/4 lengths.
Scylla is progressing in the right direction for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, and her unblemished Churchill record is a compelling reason to support her on Saturday. But you know what? The only Fleur de Lis entrant who has yet to win a graded stakes, #1 Free Like a Girl, may have a serious chance to upset Scylla and claim a breakthrough graded win in her 40th career start.
A 5-year-old Louisiana-bred mare, Free Like a Girl has shown incredibly durability since her debut as a juvenile in May 2021. She raced 10 times in 2021, 11 times in 2022, 11 times in 2023, and has made seven starts already this year. Along the way, she’s won 15 stakes races and placed in half a dozen graded stakes.
Quite frankly, Free Like a Girl has been a bit unlucky not to win a graded stakes. She ran second in the 2022 Charles Town Oaks when facing next-out Grade 1 winner Society. She finished second again in the 2022 Remington Park Oaks while coming home ahead of Grade 1 winner Juju’s Map. She was beaten only a neck in the 2024 Houston Ladies Classic Stakes by Bellamore, who had previously placed in multiple Grade 1 races. And in her last two starts, Free Like a Girl finished third in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap and second in the Grade 1 Fasig-Tipton La Troienne Stakes.
Free Like a Girl faced tough competition in both those Grade 1 contests. In the Apple Blossom, she was beaten only by seven-time graded stakes winner Adare Manor and six-time stakes winner Flying Connection while finishing ahead of Bellamore and also #2 Shotgun Hottie and #3 Taxed, two of the other Fleur de Lis entrants.
Free Like a Girl fared even better competition in the La Troienne, which took place at Churchill Downs. She was beaten only by champion Idiomatic (who won her fourth straight Grade 1 race) and finished ahead of Xigera and champion Pretty Mischievous, winner of the 2023 Longines Kentucky Oaks.
Looking at Free Like a Girl’s record this year, it’s clear she’s quietly improved by leaps and bounds. She recently defeated three of the five rivals she’ll face in the Fleur de Lis, so who’s to say she can’t conquer Scylla while dropping from the Grade 1 ranks into a Grade 2? She worked out nice ground-saving trips in the La Troienne and Apple Blossom and has every chance to do so again while breaking from the rail in the Fleur de Lis, especially since jockey Corey Lanerie (a skilled rail rider) is retaining the mount.
We’ll take a shot betting Free Like a Girl to win and playing her on top of Scylla in the exacta. The “safer” strategy might be boxing Free Like a Girl and Scylla in the exacta so that we win if they run 1-2 in either order, but in this small field, the return on investment for a boxed exacta using Scylla might be modest. That’s why we’ll aim to catch a bigger payday by backing our opinion that Free Like a Girl is the most likely winner.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$5 to win on #1 Free Like a Girl
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $5 to win on 1
$5 exacta: 1 with 4
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $5 exacta 1 with 4
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 to win on #1 Free Like a Girl
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $15 to win on 1
$15 exacta: 1 with 4
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $15 exacta 1 with 4
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Source: Making Money Betting the Exacta in 2024 Fleur de Lis Stakes
