Failed Breakout
A failed bullish breakout has the potential to follow through in the opposite direction. In other words, the chance for a bearish reversal is increasing. Today’s low of $2,917 is key near-term support as a drop below it may lead to a test of support near the lower boundary line of the pennant and a possible drop through the bottom of the pattern. As of today, the lower line looks to be around Tuesday’s low of 2,892 and therefore it can be used as a proxy for the line.
Support Levels Look Solid
Nonetheless, if the line is broken then there is an interim minor swing low included in the pennant formation at $2.878. A little lower is a lower swing low and the bottom of the pennant at $2,864. Notice that today the 20-Day MA (purple) has risen to $2,862, almost matching the pennant bottom.
Those two indicators are key to the current advance. If either is broken to the downside and gold stays there, the likelihood of a deeper bearish retracement increases. The angle of ascent for the trend will then change, possibly to match the lower 50-Day MA, now at $2,743.
Bullish Possible May Yet Occur
Despite the slow start to the pennant breakout, a decisive advance above this week’s high of $2,955 would trigger a bullish continuation of the trend on the weekly time frame. And that would put gold on track to target higher price levels. A 300% extension shows a possible target at $2,982. Further up is another extended price target at $3,012.
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Source: Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Breakout Stalls, Bearish Risks Increasing
