- EUR/USD strengthens as HCOB PMI data are expected to show overall growth in business activity in May.
- S&P Global US PMI data may show that overall business activity is expected to expand at a steady pace.
- The US House Rules Committee approved President Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill.
EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1340, close to two-week highs during the Asian trading hours. The Euro (EUR) continues its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session ahead of the HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the Eurozone, scheduled to be released later in the day. According to the preliminary estimates, the overall business activity is expected to have grown in May at a faster pace than what was seen in April.
The US Dollar (USD) continues to weaken due to dampened market sentiment in the United States (US). Traders will likely observe S&P Global US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data due on Thursday. The overall business activity is expected to expand at a steady pace in May.
Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, following similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s also predicted that US federal debt is expected to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.
The House Rules Committee approved US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill. US House Rules Committee stated that a full House floor vote on the Trump tax cut bill is set to take place in the coming hours. The headlines failed to move the needle around the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower at around 99.50 at the time of writing.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Source: EUR/USD hovers near 1.1350, two-week highs ahead of HCOB PMI for Eurozone
