Weak U.S. Data Signals Economic Strain
Despite the risk-on mood, recent economic data from the United States points to underlying economic weakness. The ADP employment report showed that private-sector job growth slowed sharply in April, with just 62,000 new positions added—less than half of March’s revised figure and well below expectations.
Additionally, first-quarter GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.3%, marking the first decline in three years. Core PCE inflation also slowed, falling to 2.6% year-over-year in March from 3% in February.
These indicators have amplified concerns about a potential U.S. recession and strengthened expectations for monetary easing. Traders now anticipate the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates as early as June, with a full percentage point of cuts expected by year-end.
Rate Cut Bets and Geopolitical Risks Lend Support
While stronger trade prospects and a rising dollar have pressured gold and silver in the near term, markets remain cautiously bullish due to dovish Fed expectations and lingering geopolitical concerns.
Russia’s renewed military activity in Eastern Europe has kept some safe-haven interest alive.
Investors now turn their focus to Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report and ISM manufacturing data, which may provide further direction for the Fed and metals markets.
Source: Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: $3,230 Holds as Bears Eye Break Below $3,200
